── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 92% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Brandon Nakashima
92%8%
Hard: 90% / 10%
Clay: 94% / 6%
Grass: 89% / 11%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Brandon Nakashima
89th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Brandon Nakashima
46th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#42
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
USA
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Brandon Nakashima
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2021-11-08 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-3(4) 4-1 4-3(4) |
| 2021-05-17 | Oeiras 3 CH | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3-6 6-4 6-4 |