── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 85% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Lorenzo Musetti
85%15%
Hard: 85% / 15%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 90% / 10%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#12
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Clay5–1
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-6 7-6(3) 6-0 2-0 RET |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 3-6 6-1 6-0 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-09-27 | Beijing | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-2 6-2 |
| 2022-07-18 | Hamburg | Clay | F | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 6-7(6) 6-4 |
| 2020-08-24 | Trieste CH | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 2-6 6-3 |