── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 89% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Jack Draper
89%11%
Hard: 85% / 15%
Clay: 88% / 12%
Grass: 88% / 12%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Jack Draper
96th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Jack Draper
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#26
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
GBR
183cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Jack Draper
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard3–1
Grass0–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Jack Draper | 6-1 0-6 6-4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-5 6-1 0-0 RET |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | R16 | Jack Draper | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 2-0 RET |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3-6 6-2 7-5 |