── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 92% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Tomas Machac
92%8%
Hard: 92% / 8%
Clay: 92% / 8%
Grass: 96% / 4%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Tomas Machac
57th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Tomas Machac
57th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#67
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
CZE
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Tomas Machac
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard1–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Tomas Machac | W/O |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | QF | Tomas Machac | 7-6(5) 7-5 |
| 2024-09-11 | Davis Cup Finals RR: CZE vs ESP | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(3) 6-1 RET |