── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 88% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Holger Rune
88%12%
Hard: 85% / 15%
Clay: 80% / 20%
Grass: 93% / 7%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#20
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
DEN
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Grass1–0
Hard1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | F | Holger Rune | 7-6(6) 6-2 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(3) 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Holger Rune | 6-3 6-6 RET |
| 2021-11-08 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-3(6) 4-2 4-0 |