── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Luca Nardi
97%3%
Hard: 96% / 4%
Clay: 97% / 3%
Grass: 99% / 1%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Luca Nardi
16th · poor
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Luca Nardi
45th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#144
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Luca Nardi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2025-02-17 | Doha | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 4-6 6-3 |