── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Mattia Bellucci
97%3%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 98% / 2%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Mattia Bellucci
34th · below avg
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Mattia Bellucci
24th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#123
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
175cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Mattia Bellucci
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-0 6-3 |
| 2020-01-06 | M15 Manacor | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-1 |