── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 93% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Matteo Arnaldi
93%7%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 87% / 13%
Grass: 99% / 1%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6) 6-1 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(5) 6-0 6-1 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 6-4 |