── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 91% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Luciano Darderi
91%9%
Hard: 98% / 2%
Clay: 83% / 17%
Grass: 98% / 2%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Luciano Darderi
62th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Luciano Darderi
74th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#37
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Luciano Darderi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 6-0 |