── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Arthur Fils
73%28%
Hard: 74% / 26%
Clay: 75% / 25%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Arthur Fils
93th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Arthur Fils
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#6
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
FRA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Arthur Fils
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay2–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2025-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-6 7-5 6-3 |