── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Ben Shelton
69%31%
Hard: 66% / 34%
Clay: 91% / 9%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Ben Shelton
99th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Ben Shelton
60th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#5
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
USA
183cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Ben Shelton
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 6-7(5) 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6(7) |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(8) 6-3 4-6 6-4 |
| 2024-09-20 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(3) |