── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 92% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Jaime Faria
92%8%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 92% / 8%
Grass: 95% / 5%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Jaime Faria
49th · average
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Jaime Faria
33th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#71
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
POR
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Jaime Faria
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2 |