── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 84% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alex Michelsen
84%16%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Alex Michelsen
72th · strong
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Alex Michelsen
88th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#24
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
USA
183cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Alex Michelsen
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(1) 4-6 6-1 |