── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 83% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Joao Fonseca
83%17%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#2
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
BRA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Carlos Alcaraz■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |