── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 85% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Roberto Carballes Baena
85%15%
Hard: 84% / 16%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 83% / 17%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Roberto Carballes Baena
22th · below avg
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Roberto Carballes Baena
58th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#147
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
ESP
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Roberto Carballes Baena
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Grass1–0
Clay0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | Acapulco | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Holger Rune | 6-3 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2022-01-31 | Cordoba | Clay | R32 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 6-2 6-4 |