── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Daniil Medvedev
36%64%
Hard: 31% / 69%
Clay: 58% / 42%
Grass: 28% / 72%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#5
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
RUS
188cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Holger Rune | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | F | Daniil Medvedev | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2023-04-10 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Holger Rune | 6-3 6-4 |