── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Mackenzie Mcdonald
59%41%
Hard: 49% / 51%
Clay: 97% / 3%
Grass: 65% / 35%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Mackenzie Mcdonald
22th · below avg
Return
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Mackenzie Mcdonald
42th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#127
model rank
#159
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
USA
188cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Mackenzie Mcdonald
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Hard1–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-16 | Queen's Club | Grass | R16 | Holger Rune | 2-6 6-1 6-1 |
| 2023-08-14 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 6-4 2-0 RET |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Holger Rune | 7-5 6-3 |