── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Holger Rune 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Holger Rune
Karen Khachanov
58%42%
Hard: 61% / 39%
Clay: 64% / 36%
Grass: 34% / 66%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Karen Khachanov
89th · strong
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Karen Khachanov
75th · strong

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#20
model rank
#34
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
RUS
188cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Holger RuneKaren Khachanov
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-04-14BarcelonaClaySFHolger Rune6-3 6-2