── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Nicolas Jarry
51%49%
Hard: 62% / 38%
Clay: 79% / 21%
Grass: 49% / 51%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Nicolas Jarry
85th · strong
Return
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Nicolas Jarry
10th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#127
model rank
#132
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
CHI
188cm
height
201cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Nicolas Jarry
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass0–1
Hard1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Nicolas Jarry | 4-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-10-21 | Basel | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-4 7-6(3) |