── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Frances Tiafoe
57%43%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 50% / 50%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#31
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
USA
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-4 3-1 RET |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | SF | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 6-1 7-6(4) |