── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Lorenzo Sonego
74%26%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 89% / 11%
Grass: 45% / 55%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
69th · average
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
40th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#87
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
ITA
188cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Lorenzo Sonego
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-03 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 7-6(4) 6-4 |
| 2022-09-26 | Sofia | Hard | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-7(1) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-09-20 | Metz | Hard | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-7(6) 6-4 6-4 |