── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Ugo Humbert
61%39%
Hard: 54% / 46%
Clay: 85% / 15%
Grass: 48% / 52%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Ugo Humbert
86th · strong
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Ugo Humbert
63th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#39
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
DEN
country
FRA
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Ugo Humbert
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | SF | Ugo Humbert | 4-6 2-2 RET |
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 5-7 6-4 7-5 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-2 7-6(5) |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R128 | Holger Rune | 6-3 6-2 |