── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexei Popyrin 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Alexei Popyrin
41%59%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 74% / 26%
Grass: 75% / 25%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Return
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#127
model rank
#90
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
AUS
188cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–1
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Alexei Popyrin | 4-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-4 5-7 6-4 |