── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Sebastian Baez
73%27%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 81% / 19%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#77
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
ARG
188cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay2–3
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Holger Rune | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2025-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Holger Rune | 4-6 6-1 6-2 |
| 2024-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Sebastian Baez | 2-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-10-23 | Basel | Hard | R16 | Holger Rune | 7-6(2) 6-1 |
| 2022-02-07 | Buenos Aires | Clay | R32 | Sebastian Baez | 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2021-03-15 | Santiago CH | Clay | R32 | Sebastian Baez | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2021-03-08 | Santiago | Clay | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-3 6-2 |