── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Lorenzo Musetti
45%55%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 46% / 54%
Grass: 38% / 62%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#12
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
ITA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard1–0
Grass1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-5 3-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-2 7-6(5) |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | QF | Holger Rune | 6-4 7-5 |