── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Jack Draper
53%47%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 34% / 66%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Jack Draper
96th · elite
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Jack Draper
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#26
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
DEN
country
GBR
188cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Jack Draper
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | F | Jack Draper | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-2 |