── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Holger Rune 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Holger Rune
Mariano Navone
58%42%
Hard: 84% / 16%
Clay: 58% / 42%
Grass: 86% / 14%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Mariano Navone
28th · below avg
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Mariano Navone
97th · elite

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#20
model rank
#32
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
ARG
188cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Holger RuneMariano Navone
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay11
── 2 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-02-10Buenos AiresClayR16Mariano Navone6-1 7-6(2)
2024-04-22Madrid MastersClayR64Holger Rune5-7 7-6(2) 6-4