── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Alex Michelsen
64%36%
Hard: 56% / 44%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 49% / 51%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Alex Michelsen
59th · average
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Alex Michelsen
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#47
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
USA
188cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Alex Michelsen
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 7-6(4) 6-3 |