── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Luca Nardi
Denis Shapovalov
20%80%
Hard: 18% / 82%
Clay: 35% / 65%
Grass: 25% / 75%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Luca Nardi
9th · poor
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Return
Luca Nardi
33th · below avg
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#175
model rank
#49
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ITA
country
CAN
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Luca Nardi■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Luca Nardi | 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 |