── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Luca Nardi
Denis Shapovalov
31%69%
Hard: 25% / 75%
Clay: 37% / 63%
Grass: 19% / 81%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Luca Nardi
16th · poor
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Return
Luca Nardi
45th · average
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#144
model rank
#66
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ITA
country
CAN
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Luca Nardi■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Luca Nardi | 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 |