── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Novak Djokovic 88% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Novak Djokovic
12%88%
Hard: 6% / 94%
Clay: 24% / 76%
Grass: 1% / 99%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#3
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
SRB
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Novak Djokovic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Geneva | Clay | QF | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-4 |