── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Frances Tiafoe
39%61%
Hard: 26% / 74%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 19% / 81%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#31
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
USA
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–0
Grass0–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 3-6 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-7(5) 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-3 |