── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Hubert Hurkacz
52%48%
Hard: 46% / 54%
Clay: 52% / 48%
Grass: 9% / 91%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Hubert Hurkacz
94th · elite
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Hubert Hurkacz
48th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#60
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
POL
185cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Hubert Hurkacz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Cagliari CH | Clay | F | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 6-4 |