── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Lorenzo Sonego
58%42%
Hard: 36% / 64%
Clay: 83% / 17%
Grass: 16% / 84%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Lorenzo Sonego
69th · average
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Lorenzo Sonego
40th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#87
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ITA
185cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Lorenzo Sonego
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 7-5 7-5 |