── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
40%60%
Hard: 26% / 74%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 23% / 77%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58th · average
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#33
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-10 | Delray Beach | Hard | SF | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 4-6 7-6(5) 3-0 RET |