── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
26%74%
Hard: 22% / 78%
Clay: 61% / 39%
Grass: 9% / 91%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
77th · strong
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#84
model rank
#21
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-10 | Delray Beach | Hard | SF | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 4-6 7-6(5) 3-0 RET |