── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 79% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Alex De Minaur
21%79%
Hard: 16% / 84%
Clay: 44% / 56%
Grass: 6% / 94%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#86
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
AUS
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 6-0 6-3 |