── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Hugo Gaston
71%29%
Hard: 45% / 55%
Clay: 85% / 15%
Grass: 46% / 54%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Hugo Gaston
6th · poor
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Hugo Gaston
48th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#138
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ITA
country
FRA
185cm
height
173cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Hugo Gaston
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | Q1 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-1 5-7 7-6(5) |
| 2025-05-18 | Geneva | Clay | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-7(6) 6-4 6-4 |