── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Aleksandar Kovacevic
65%35%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 50% / 50%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Aleksandar Kovacevic
68th · average
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Aleksandar Kovacevic
3th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#113
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
USA
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Aleksandar Kovacevic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R128 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 5-7 6-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | Q1 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 6-4 |