── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Alexander Shevchenko
62%38%
Hard: 55% / 45%
Clay: 74% / 26%
Grass: 66% / 34%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Alexander Shevchenko
30th · below avg
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Alexander Shevchenko
16th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#84
model rank
#137
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
KAZ
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Alexander Shevchenko
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R128 | Alexander Shevchenko | 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-2 |
| 2023-01-01 | Canberra CH | Hard | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022-10-10 | Saint Tropez CH | Hard | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-1 6-2 |