── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi 72% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Luca Nardi
72%28%
Hard: 52% / 48%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 65% / 35%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Luca Nardi
16th · poor
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Luca Nardi
45th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#144
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ITA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Luca Nardi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | Q1 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-0 6-7(4) 6-3 |