── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Arnaldi a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Arthur Cazaux
52%48%
Hard: 40% / 60%
Clay: 78% / 22%
Grass: 26% / 74%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Arthur Cazaux
72th · strong
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Arthur Cazaux
53th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#61
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
FRA
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Arthur Cazaux
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–1
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-17 | Hangzhou | Hard | R32 | Arthur Cazaux | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |
| 2024-04-15 | Barcelona | Clay | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 5-5 RET |