── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Raphael Collignon 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Arnaldi
Raphael Collignon
40%60%
Hard: 39% / 61%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 25% / 75%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Raphael Collignon
74th · strong
Return
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Raphael Collignon
50th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#84
model rank
#55
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
BEL
185cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Arnaldi■ Raphael Collignon
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-4 6-7(5) 5-7 6-4 7-6(4) |