── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Sebastian Baez 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Valentin Royer
Sebastian Baez
40%60%
Hard: 43% / 57%
Clay: 40% / 60%
Grass: 77% / 23%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Valentin Royer
43th · average
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Valentin Royer
18th · poor
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#118
model rank
#77
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
FRA
country
ARG
188cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Valentin RoyerSebastian Baez
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-10-13BrusselsHardR32Valentin Royer6-2 6-3