── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Mariano Navone 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Mariano Navone
Denis Shapovalov
64%36%
Hard: 21% / 79%
Clay: 80% / 20%
Grass: 22% / 78%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Mariano Navone
28th · below avg
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Return
Mariano Navone
97th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#32
model rank
#66
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ARG
country
CAN
178cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Mariano Navone■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Grass1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R128 | Mariano Navone | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Mariano Navone | 3-6 6-4 6-1 6-4 |