── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Holger Rune 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Mariano Navone
Holger Rune
42%58%
Hard: 16% / 84%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 14% / 86%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Mariano Navone
28th · below avg
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Return
Mariano Navone
97th · elite
Holger Rune
86th · strong

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#32
model rank
#20
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
DEN
178cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Mariano NavoneHolger Rune
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay11
── 2 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-02-10Buenos AiresClayR16Mariano Navone6-1 7-6(2)
2024-04-22Madrid MastersClayR64Holger Rune5-7 7-6(2) 6-4