── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Mariano Navone
Holger Rune
42%58%
Hard: 16% / 84%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Mariano Navone
28th · below avg
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Return
Mariano Navone
97th · elite
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#32
model rank
#20
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
DEN
178cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Mariano Navone■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-10 | Buenos Aires | Clay | R16 | Mariano Navone | 6-1 7-6(2) |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Holger Rune | 5-7 7-6(2) 6-4 |