── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Baez a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Gabriel Diallo
Sebastian Baez
49%51%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 31% / 69%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Gabriel Diallo
67th · average
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Gabriel Diallo
36th · below avg
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#92
model rank
#89
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
ARG
203cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Gabriel Diallo■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Gabriel Diallo | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Bucharest | Clay | R16 | Sebastian Baez | 7-6(5) 2-6 6-2 |