── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Gabriel Diallo
Joao Fonseca
23%77%
Hard: 19% / 81%
Clay: 17% / 83%
Grass: 60% / 40%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Gabriel Diallo
66th · average
Joao Fonseca
83th · strong
Return
Gabriel Diallo
35th · below avg
Joao Fonseca
88th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#94
model rank
#15
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
BRA
203cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Gabriel Diallo■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard1–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Joao Fonseca | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024-07-29 | Lexington CH | Hard | QF | Joao Fonseca | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-07-22 | Chicago CH | Hard | R16 | Gabriel Diallo | 7-6(1) 6-1 |