── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Bolt a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Tristan Schoolkate
Alex Bolt
46%54%
Hard: 53% / 47%
Clay: 67% / 33%
Grass: 34% / 66%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Tristan Schoolkate
33th · below avg
Alex Bolt
35th · below avg
Return
Tristan Schoolkate
9th · poor
Alex Bolt
8th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#154
model rank
#145
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Left
AUS
country
AUS
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Tristan Schoolkate■ Alex Bolt
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
Grass1–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | Q1 | Tristan Schoolkate | 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4 |
| 2025-07-07 | Newport CH | Grass | R32 | Tristan Schoolkate | 7-6(4) 7-6(2) |
| 2025-01-27 | Brisbane 1 CH | Hard | QF | Tristan Schoolkate | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2024-04-22 | Shenzhen CH | Hard | R16 | Tristan Schoolkate | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2022-11-14 | M25 Traralgon | Hard | R16 | Tristan Schoolkate | 6-4 6-3 |