── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Joao Fonseca 68% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Ignacio Buse
Joao Fonseca
32%68%
Hard: 12% / 88%
Clay: 39% / 61%
Grass: 17% / 83%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Ignacio Buse
63th · average
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Ignacio Buse
83th · strong
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#40
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
PER
country
BRA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Ignacio BuseJoao Fonseca
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-02-16Rio de JaneiroClayR16Ignacio Buse5-7 6-3 6-4