── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Raphael Collignon 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Raphael Collignon
Alexei Popyrin
61%39%
Hard: 59% / 41%
Clay: 58% / 42%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Raphael Collignon
74th · strong
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Return
Raphael Collignon
49th · average
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#54
model rank
#90
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BEL
country
AUS
191cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Raphael Collignon■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–1
Grass1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Halle | Grass | R32 | Raphael Collignon | 6-4 6-2 |