── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Arthur Fils 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Arthur Fils
Frances Tiafoe
59%41%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 40% / 60%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Arthur Fils
93th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Return
Arthur Fils
94th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#6
model rank
#12
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
FRA
country
USA
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Arthur Fils■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | R16 | Arthur Fils | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2026-08-24 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | F | Arthur Fils | 6-3 1-6 6-0 |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Arthur Fils | 7-6(11) 5-7 6-2 |